PRINCE2 Forecasting: Why It Falls Short – and How EVS Can Fix It

Table of Contents:

1. Introduction
2. What is Earned Value Schedule (EVS)?
3. Why EVS Works So Well with PRINCE2
4. A Simple Example: How EVS Reveals Trouble Early
5. EVS Is Not Just a Tool – It’s a Mindset Shift
6. Recommended PRINCE2® Courses to Take Your Skills Further
7. Take the next step with AVC

Introduction

One of the core principles of PRINCE2 is “managing by exception” – a concept that places forecasting at the heart of project control. And yet, PRINCE2 famously avoids prescribing how to forecast.

This isn’t a flaw in the method, but rather a design choice. PRINCE2 intentionally steers clear of specific tools or techniques, leaving it up to the practitioner to choose the best fit for their project environment.

But what if you had a practical, proven way to bring forecasting to life within your PRINCE2 project?

Let’s talk about Earned Value Schedule (EVS) — and why it's the tool PRINCE2 practitioners didn’t know they were missing.

What is Earned Value Schedule (EVS)?

Earned Value Schedule is a project control technique that focuses on tracking time and cost performance in relation to the value of work actually delivered. It gives a clear, quantifiable picture of project progress and allows you to forecast future outcomes using real data.

Often mistaken for PMI’s Earned Value Management (EVM), EVS is simpler, faster to learn, and easier to apply. And yet it offers incredibly robust insight.

EVS is based on a few key metrics:

• Planned Value (PV): How much work should have been done by now?
• Earned Value (EV): How much value has actually been delivered?
• Actual Cost (AC): What have we spent so far?
• Schedule & Cost Variance: How far off are we – and in what direction?

The real strength of EVS lies in its clarity: using just a few simple inputs (usually gathered at product or stage level), you can determine whether your project is ahead or behind schedule, under or over budget — and what that means going forward.

Why EVS Works So Well with PRINCE2

PRINCE2 is built around product-based planning, which aligns beautifully with EVS. You already structure your project by deliverables — EVS simply brings measurable progress tracking into that structure.

It can be used at multiple levels:

• Project level (for reporting to the board)
• Stage level (for project manager control)
• Work package level (for team manager reporting)
• Product level (for real visibility into deliverables)

While PRINCE2 gives you the framework for good governance, EVS provides the numbers and early warnings that make that governance effective.

A Simple Example: How EVS Reveals Trouble Early

Imagine your team has spent $3,000 so far, completed 35% of the work, but was supposed to have completed 45%. With a budget of $5,500, that doesn’t sound too bad — until you calculate the performance indexes:

• Cost Performance Index (CPI): 0.64
• Schedule Performance Index (SPI): 0.77
• Forecast final cost: Over $8,500 — nearly 56% over budget

Without EVS, you might not have seen this coming. With EVS, you can see the problem, take action, and reset expectations before the project slips further.

EVS Is Not Just a Tool – It’s a Mindset Shift

Too often, project control is reactive. EVS helps you become proactive — giving you insight to make smart decisions before problems become visible on the surface.

It brings data into the heart of PRINCE2 decision-making, enabling more transparent reporting, more effective replanning, and higher stakeholder confidence.

Recommended PRINCE2® Courses to Take Your Skills Further

If this blog sparked your interest in turning PRINCE2 principles into real, data-driven decisions — you're not alone. Many professionals find that certification is just the beginning. The next step is knowing how to apply the method in practice.

Here are our top recommended courses to deepen your PRINCE2 expertise and connect theory with real-world project control:

• PRINCE2® 7th Foundation – Classroom or eLearning

Best for: Newcomers to PRINCE2

Why it fits: A perfect starting point your first exposure to PRINCE2. Learn the basics and build your foundation for future application.

• PRINCE2® 7th Practitioner – Classroom or eLearning

Best for: Those already certified at Foundation level who want to move toward practical application. Why it fits: The Practitioner level is all about real-life usage — including performance tracking, controls, and adaptive planning.

• PRINCE2® 7th Foundation & Practitioner – Classroom or eLearning

Best for: Professionals looking for a complete, end-to-end PRINCE2 certification in one course. Why it fits: You’ll not only understand the full PRINCE2 framework, but also how to tailor it to real project environments.

• PRINCE2® Agile Practitioner – Classroom or eLearning

Best for: Project professionals working in hybrid or agile environments. Why it fits: EVS is about clarity and adaptability — exactly what this course helps you achieve by blending agile principles with structured PRINCE2 control.

Take the next step with AVC

At Adding Value Consulting, we don’t just train you to pass exams — we train you to succeed in real-world projects. Whether you're starting fresh or expanding your expertise, our PRINCE2® courses are designed to give you both certification and practical impact.

👉 View all courses here